Beltway Area Indymedia

With Turkey threatening an invasion of northern Iraq to attack Kurds and rebel forces stationed there, the Iraqi Parliament warned that any such military action would be "repulsed". Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, Speaker of the Iraq Parliament, said any Turkish "hand" interfereing "in our internal affairs will be cut, if not today then tomorrow." The warnings echoed statements from the Iraqi Kurdistan assembly, which called Turkey's threats of invasion a "dangerous escalation" and a "threat to the Iraqi people."

Turkey is strongly considering a military attack in northern Iraq, where Iraqi Kurds have established an autonomous region and de facto Kurdish state. The Turkish military is currently engaged in fighting with the Kurdish Workers Party, known as the PKK, a Kurdish resistance group operating predominantly in southeastern Turkey near the border with Iraq. Turkish General Yasar Buyukanit said this week that, "An operation into Iraq is necessary," and reports indicate that the military has requested permission from the Turkish government to cross the border into Iraq. However, Buyukanit also contradicted these reports by saying he has not asked for direct authorization for an invasion.

The threats from Turkey come after several years of warnings and complaints from Turkey that the US and Iraq are not doing enough to prevent the PKK and their sympathizers from staging attacks inside Turkey. Kurds in Turkey, like those in Iraq and Iran, have long suffered severe oppression and often violent attacks at the hands of those nations' governments. Turkey and Iran have both repeatedly said that an independent Kurdish state is "unacceptable", and the upcoming referendum to decide the status of Kirkuk, the potential capital city of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, is increasing tensions with regard to the issue.

An invasion of Iraq by Turkey not only threatens thousands of civilian lives and a widening of the war in Iraq to neighboring countries, including Turkey and Iran, but also brings with it the danger of direct confrontations between the armies of Turkey and the US, both of whom are members of NATO and long-time allies in the region. Conflict between Iranian and US forces could also occur, if a Turkish invasion ignites broader fighting that spills over to include Iranian Kurds. The Iraqi Kurds are currently allies of the US forces occupying Iraq, so any conflict involving Turkey and Iran would force the US to choose between backing the Kurds but opposing both Turkey and Iran, or supporting Turkey and Iran while abandoning relations with the Kurds.

Another aspect to the situation is the relationship that exists between Israel and all of the involved parties. Israel has close ties to the US and the Iraqi Kurds, and opposes Iran but maintains strong ties -- including engaging in joint military exercises -- with Turkey. If the situation erupts into violence that draws in Iranian and US forces as well as Turkish and Kurdish fighters, Israel would face a complex diplomatic situation, one which would increase if the Kurds requested weapons or other support or if Turkey requested any logistical assistance. Both situations might arise, if for no other reason than that Turkey or the Kurds might wish to use diplomatic pressure and force other nations to take sides in the conflict.

The prospect of a military confrontation between the US and Iran -- which appears increasingly likely -- would likewise threaten havoc, as Iran might respond to any US attack by sending troops into Iraq, to confront not only US forces but also Kurdish troops blamed for many recent attacks in Iran, reportedly with direct assistance from the US. The US might be in the position of trying to maintain neutrality and create compromise between battling Turkish and Kurdish forces, while simultaneously also fighting alongside the Kurds in battles with Iranian troops. If US forces end up assisting Kurdish troops against Iran, the situation with regard to Turkey would almost surely tilt toward an increased likelihood of open conflict between US and Turkish forces.

In the past, Turkish threats to invade Iraq have primarily been used for diplomatic leverage, to force the US to respond by pressuring the Kurds to stand down or at least reduce activity in southeastern Turkey.

Now, however, with the US actively encouraging Kurds to launch attacks across the border into Iran; with Kurdish territory in northern Iran standing out as one of the few areas mostly free of civil warfare; and with the upcoming vote in Kirkuk seen by many as the first step towards full autonomy for an independent Kurdistan, it will be much more difficult for the US to pressure the Kurds to end attacks against a Turkish government that routinely and brutally represses Kurds just across the border from Iraq.

Moreover, the tone of Turkey's most recent threats is unlike previous statements, and it seems that Turkey's parliament -- with or without an explicit request from the military -- might be poised to extend permission for an invasion. No doubt, they are well aware that the situation regarding the Kurds, as noted in the paragraph above, makes the current situation different from those of the past. They may be counting on the prospects for intense complications for the US -- both militarily and politically -- to deter the US from taking any action against a Turkish invasion. Unfortunately, such calculations are misguided and would in all likelihood prove dreadfully wrong.

The prospects for a wider, more deadly war, one in which traditional or recent alliances are turned on their heads with unpredictable consequences (except for the all-too-predictable body count), is very real. Suddenly and somewhat quietly (in light of the surprising lack of mainstream US press attention given to these developments), it seems that another potential front may be about to explode wide in Iraq and pull not just the Iraqi Kurds into a conflict with neighboring states but possibly Iraqi military forces as well, expanding the war not only into Iran to the east, but also north -- north, into Europe.